The child that could (not) reign

It is 1498. Castile and Aragon are worried, for Juan, Prince of Asturias and heir to the crowns of his parents Isabel and Fernando, died last year, maybe victim of tuberculosis, at the age of 19. As he was the only direc male descendant of the Catholic Monarchs, the only hope both of them have of keeping the unification of Spain is for one of her daughters to have a son that can continue their legacy. Fortunately, both Isabel, the primogenite, and Juana, the second child, are married and pregnant.

The first to give birth to her child is Isabel, Queen of Portugal, who gives birth to a baby boy on August 23^rd 1498 in the city of Zaragoza, child who will be called Miguel de la Paz, or Miguel da Paz in Portuguese. Sadly, Isabel dies in childbirth, and her husband, Manuel I of Portugal (nicknamed "The Fortunate"), will not marry again until three years later, this time with Maria, the Catholic Monarchs' fourth child (third girl). Meanwhile, Juana gives birth to Leonor, who will eventually become Manuel I's third wife and later Francis I of France's second wife.

But, let's go back to the recently born Prince. As he is male, Miguel is recognized as heir to the Crowns of Aragon, Castile, Leon and Portugal, becoming the Prince of Asturias, Gerona and Portugal. The young child stays with his maternal grandparents, who hope that, in this way, the unification that would take place in the person of Miguel after the death of the boys' grandparents and father will be dominated by the Castilian-Aragonese side, while the Portuguese nobility expects that it might be them that control the unification. However, disgrace does not cease to happen to the family, for Miguel dies on July 19^th 1500 at the age of 1 year and 329 days. The Princedom of Asturias and Gerona remain vacant, passing then to his aunt Juana and later to her son Carlos, future Carlos I, while the heir to the Portuguese throne will be Manuel I's and Maria's first son, the future João III of Portugal. The dreams of an Iberian Union would not become real until 1580, when Philip II's troops defeated António, Prior of Crato, in the Battle of Alcantara: this union lasted until 1640, when the Portuguese War of Independence happened and João of Braganza managed to be crowned as João IV of Portugal.

There is no doubt that young Miguel da Paz, had he survived the illness that took him, would have changed the course of history in ways we can barely suspect.

I can start with what is the most obvious thing: should Miguel have survived to become an adult, he would have become King of Castile first (after Isabel's death in 1504), perhaps Navarre in 1512 (if Fernando follows the same plans as in real life and sends an army there in that year), Aragon in 1516 (after Fernando's death) and, finally, Portugal in 1521 (when his father follows his grandparents). After the three crowns become unified in the same person, these would form the base of the greatest empire in history, dominating the Caribbean Sea, Central and South America and a good part of Africa and Asia. Eventually, much like it was happening in other countries at this time, centralizing efforts to concentrate the power in a fixed capital (probably Madrid because of its central position within the Iberian Peninsula and the fact that the old capital of the Visigothic Kingdom, Toledo, had its expansion stopped by the Tagus river), but, considering the Portuguese situation, it would be probable that this advances would be much slower. Perhaps a different system would have been developed, a sort of federal kingdom, in which each of the kingdoms would have local autonomy, but all of them would be always subjected to the same laws. The concentration of national efforts in the colonization of the Americas, Africa and Asia might lead to a potential isolation of Spain (it is said that the Portuguese kings did not like the fact that the Catholic Monarchs gave the union of Castile and Aragon the name "Spain", because they also felt like they were "Spanish", at least back at the time) from the affairs taking place in the rest of Europe, unless some event prompted their intervention. Such a relatively early unification between both nations would have probably prevented the Spanish and Portuguese languages from existing as such: with time, the kingdom would speak one language, surely similar to Galician but with several differences, while Portuguese and Castilian would be reduced to the level of Euskera or Catalonian, and as such spoken just in some places. The eventual conflict with France and England for domination in Europe and away would have existed, but this time the balance would favour Spain a bit more. And it is very much likely that, while the colonies would end up becoming independent, the situation might have ended up differently, of course as long as the kings and political leaders of the time were able to act intelligently.

Of course, many other things would have radically changed. To begin with, Charles, son of Juana (*our* Carlos I) would have become Count of Burgundy and Sovereign of the Low Countries in 1506, but he would have not ascended to the Spanish throne in 1516. Whether this would have eased or not his crowning as Emperor of the Holy Roman-Germanic Empire, it is harder to say, as, on one side, he would be lacking the gold and silver that was coming from America and with which he would have been able to bribe the Electors to pick him, but, on the other side, his being a person with less personal power might have helped convince the German princes and bishops to vote for his candidacy. A clear thing is that, whomever became the Emperor later, he would have had to deal with the future division caused by the start and expansion of Protestantism, which would have been even more unstoppable than it would have been in reality: if Charles V had been unable to do so with large monetary resources at his disposition, Maximillian of Burgundy's replacement in the Imperial throne would have had it a lot more complicated. The Ottoman threat would also be there, but a Spain that became more concentrated in the south and the west would, nonetheless, be able to better defend itself in the North of Africa and in the Kingdom of Naples, maybe forcing them out of the Western Mediterranean and prompting them to concentrate in attacking towards Vienna. Were Vienna to fall, the gates to Central Europe would be open to the Turks, but it would also be the call for all of Christendom to point their weapons at them, perhaps even sparking a Crusade (of course, there is the chance that some of them might be willing to ally with them, such as France). In England, if Henry VIII were to decide to divorce Catherine of Aragon (his first wife and mother of Mary, Queen of Scots) and were excomulgated, the situation would be a lot worse for England, as an unified Iberia would have left them with little support in the continent. Who knows? Maybe the equivalent to the Armada Invencible manages to defeat the English Navy, opening the way for the Tercios to restablish Catholicism as the island's main religion.

Many things are left in the inkwell about how Spain would have developed in later centuries, but, as this is a matter of great interest, it is not strange that many people may have wanted to speak about it.

The first of the examples of people that worked out young Miguel da Paz's potential luck was the first Spanish uchronia, Cuatro Siglos de Buen Gobierno (Four Centuries of Good Government) by Nilo María Fabra, gentleman that was generous in writing, as he also wrote science-fiction, and he was the founder of the Agencia de Noticias Fabra, the precursor to the Spanish Agencia EFE. Mr Fabra, in this short tale, turns Miguel into a fair and noble king, that takes care of expanding the Empire's borders in Africa and Asia, and also establishes permanent General Courts to ensure the good government of his nation. This work can be easily found on the internet, and in this link (in Spanish, I fear) you can access it, within the Iberistas forum.

In AlternateHistory.com there are loads of stories, written both by Spaniards and non-Spaniards, which speak about the same matter. For example, this link has a timeline that explains clearly and concisely the events that change due to Miguel da Paz's survival. And the story Two Lucky Princes, has as a POD the survival of not only Miguel da Paz, but also of Arthur of Wales, Henry VII's first son and Catherine of Aragon's first husband.

See? A great example of what an early death can cause. Imagine that we were living nowadays in a country that was born in the Iberian Union created in the person of Don Miguel I, King of Castile, of Aragon, of Navarre and of Portugal (and who-knows-how-many more noble titles). I am doing so right now, and I am sure that we would not have had so many problems at a national level.

Thank you for reading, and I hope you will do the same again on Uchronia Lallena's next post, next Friday.